Aug 25, 2025
Corn Ethanol in Brazil to Compensate for Lower Sugarcane Ethanol
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Sugarcane processing in south central Brazil is expected to be 590.4 million tons in 2025/26 which is down 5% from the 622.9 million tons processed in 2024/25 according to SCA Brasil. The sugarcane harvest is approximately 60% complete with lower sugarcane yields and lower quality of the raw material.
The tons of cane per hectare (TCH) is expected to be 74.7, down 4.8% from 78.5 recorded in 2024/25. The total Recoverable Sugar (ATR) will fall 5% from 141.1 kg/t to 136.1 kg/t. The combination of these two factors results in a total impact equivalent to 53 million tons of sugarcane less than the previous harvest. The quantity and quality of the sugarcane is expected to improve during the second half of 2025 due to rain in April and June and milder temperatures reducing the risk of prolonged drought and widespread fires that strongly harmed the 2024/25 crop.
According to SCA Brasil, a record 51.1% of the sugarcane was directed to the production of sugar or approximately 39.1 million tons, down 3% compared to 2024/25.
The production of corn ethanol will be decisive in compensating for some of the losses in the 2025/26 sugarcane harvest. Of the total production of biofuel estimated at 32.8 billion liters, 23 billion will come from sugarcane (69.9%) and 9.8 billion will come from corn (29.8%). Corn ethanol production is expected to increase 20% from 8.19 billion liters in 2024/25 to 9.8 billion liters in 2025/26.
According to data from Climatempo, a heat wave is expected at the end of August with above normal temperatures for sugarcane producing areas in Brazil. September should start dry and hot with rains of low intensity returning gradually. October should be rainy with longer periods of dry weather during November.