Sep 10, 2025
Low Soil Moisture in Mato Grosso May Delay Start of Soy Planting
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Farmers in Mato Grosso are allowed to start planting their 2025/26 soybeans on September 7th, but insufficient soil moisture may not allow farmers to move forward with their field work. According to analysts at EarthDaily Agro, current soil moisture levels in Mato Grosso are the lowest in 10 years.
The first isolated showers of the summer rainy season have occurred in the northwestern part of the state, but not in sufficient volumes for farmers to start planting. The American and European models are calling for only sparce rainfall across the state for the first half of September. For the period from September 1st to September 16th, the European model (ECMWF) is calling for 0.74 mm of accumulated precipitation (0.02 inches) and the American model is calling for 2.15 mm (0.08 inches). The average for the last 30 years for the period is 12.38 mm (0.49 inches).
Below is the estimated precipitation in Brazil for the first 15 days of September from NOAA. Southern Brazil is expected to receive rain, but very little rain is expected in Mato Grosso. According to Imea, this picture is similar to that observed last year, when there was an initial delay in rainfall, but the rainfall became more regular by the end of the month.
If this forecast verifies, soybean planting and harvesting would be more concentrated, exposing the crop to more risks, if they appear. Additionally, it could delay the planting of safrinha corn after the soybeans are harvested. The ideal planting window for safrinha corn closes around the end of February.
For soybeans, Imea is estimating that Mato Grosso will plant 13.01 million hectares (32.1 million acres), which would be an increase of 1.6% compared to last year. Soybean production in 2025/26 is expected to be 48.5 million tons, which is down 4,7% compared to last year. Corn acreage in the state is estimated at 7.39 million hectares (18.2 million acres), up 1.8% and the corn production is estimated at 51.72 million tons, down 6.7% from last year's record production.
Conab will issue their next monthly crop report on Thursday, September 11, 2025. This will be their 12th and final report concerning the 2024/25 growing season. They will issue their first monthly report concerning the 2025/26 growing season on October 14, 2025.