Mar 05, 2026
Argentina Soybean Estimate Unchanged at 47.0 Million Tons
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
Scattered showers last week were limited to southern Cordoba and central Buenos Aires. The weekend was mostly dry, but rain is expected to be widespread today and tomorrow and should favor northern areas through the rest of the week. Dryness will likely still linger in Buenos Aires.
Heavy rains two weeks ago across the core production area helped the soybeans recover after a stressful January. Some areas ended February close to the historical average rainfall with many areas falling short. The Rosario Grain Exchange reported that February rainfall in the core production area averaged 103 mm (4 inches) with 30% of the area receiving less than 80 mm (3.2 inches). Up until mid-February, the late planted soybeans had not exceeded the height of the wheat stubble, but with recent rains, growth has resumed.
The driest region is around greater Rosario and northern Buenos Aires where soybean yields are expected in the range of 2,500 to 3,000 kg/ha (37 to 44 bu/ac) compared to 3,300 kg/ha in 2024/25 (49 bu/ac). Bottom line - the rainfall of two weeks ago helped the soybeans to recover, but more rain will be needed throughout the month of March to achieve a satisfactory yield in addition to no early frost.
The Argentina soybean estimate was left unchanged this week at 47.0 million tons with a neutral to lower bias, but if rainfall during March ends up dryer-than-normal, the production estimate will decline.
Soybeans in Argentina were rated 29% poor, 45% fair, and 26% good/excellent as of late last week. The goof/excellent percentage is down 7% compared to the prior week. Soil moisture for soybeans is 27% short and 73% favorable/optimum. The favorable/optimum is up 7% compared to the prior week. Even with improved moisture, the soybean condition declined probably due in part to the damage caused by recent heavy storms. Below is the soybean rating in Argentina for February 26, 2026 from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.
2025/26 Argentina Soybean Ratings*
| Condition | Soil Moisture | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poor/V. Poor % | Good/Excellent % | Short/V Short | Favorable/Optimum | |
| Jan. 21, 2026 | 13 (24) | 53 (26) | 32 (44) | 67 (56) |
| Jan. 28, 2026 | 16 (25) | 47 (24) | 36 (41) | 64 (59) |
| Feb. 4, 2026 | 25 (29) | 40 (20) | 41 (34) | 59 (66) |
| Feb. 11, 2026 | 32 (33) | 32 (18) | 44 (35) | 56 (65) |
| Feb. 19, 2026 | 25 (32) | 33 (19) | 34 (30) | 66 (70) |
| Feb. 26, 2026 | 29 (32) | 26 (26) | 27 (29) | 73 (71) |
*Source: Buenos Aires Grain Exchange – Crop Condition & Development Stages