Jul 15, 2026
El Nino Poses Major Risk for Brazilian Crops
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The developing El Nino is one of the main risk factors for Brazilian agriculture in the 2026/27 growing season. Although the first signs of its influence will be felt during the Brazilian winter (June, July, August), it is between spring and the beginning of summer that the phenomenon tends to reach its peak, raising the potential for extreme weather events precisely during the planting and development of the main summer crops in Brazil.
The effects of El Nino begin to be felt during July with a wetter pattern developing in southern Brazil resulting in a high volume of rain during the spring planting of soybeans and first crop corn. In Central, North, and Northeastern Brazil the effects are opposite with a lack of precipitation, heat waves, and even a delay in the onset of the summer rainy season.
Farmers in southern Brazil will start planting their full season corn as early as late August if the conditions permit. Soybean planting will start in Parana during the first week of September and in Mato Grosso on September 7th.
A study conducted by the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) indicated that during the last three El Nino events dating back to 2010, soybean yields in the state during El Nino events average 5.8 bushels per acre less than during La Nina events. For safrinha corn in the state, yields during El Nino events average 15 bushels per acre less than during La Nina events.
Farmers in central Brazil are being advised to diversify the maturities of their soybean varieties by planting early, medium, and late maturities to minimize the risk from dry weather. They are also being advised to spread out the planting window to minimize risks.
Those strategies may help ensure adequate soybean yields, but they could come at the expense of safrinha corn yields. Those strategies could delay the planting of the safrinha corn and if corn is planted after the ideal planting window closes about the third week of February, there is an increased risk of lower yields.