May 29, 2024
2023/24 Brazil Safrinha Corn 2% Harvested
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
AgRural reported that 2% of the safrinha corn had been harvested at the end of last week compared to 0.8% last year. They reported that good yields in Mato Grosso and Goias are partially compensating for lower yields in the southern states. AgRural is estimating the 2023/24 Brazil corn crop at 118.4 million tons.
Conab is rating the corn at 2.9% in vegetative development, 12.8% pollinating, 62.2% filling grain, and 21.6% maturing. In their May Crop Report, Conab estimated the 2023/24 Brazil corn production at 111.6 million tons.
In the southern regions, hot and dry weather impacted the safrinha corn in the states of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, and Minas Gerais where the growth cycle is being cut short by the adverse weather. The southern regions received some rainfall last week and over the weekend. In the northern regions, the weather has been more beneficial in the states of Mato Grosso and Goias.
Mato Grosso - Farmers in Mat Grosso had harvested 1.9% of their 2023/24 safrinha corn as of late last week compared to 0.5% last year and 0.6% average according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics Imea). This represents an advance of 1.4% for the week. An early start to the harvest had been anticipated since the planting started early as well. Harvesting should continue at an accelerated pace since dry weather is promoting a rapid drydown of the grain.
Imea estimates that Mato Grosso will produce 45 million tons of corn in 2023/24, which is down 14.2% from last year's record crop. The corn acreage is down this year as well as the yields. Below is the 2023/24 safrinha corn harvest progress in Mato Grosso from Imea.
Parana - The Department of Rural Economics for the state of Parana (Deral) reported that 2% of the safrinha corn in the state has been harvested as of earlier last week. The remainder of the corn is 9% pollinating, 64% filling grain, and 27% maturing.
The condition of the safrinha corn in Parana declined last week with 17% rated poor (14% the previous week), 32% rated average (29% the previous week), and 51% rated good (57% the previous week). Extended periods of hot and dry weather is expected to result in low corn yields, especially in western and northwestern Parana.
In the municipality of Palotina in western Parana, 45-60 days of dry weather negatively impacted the safrinha corn development. The president of the Rural Union of Palotina is estimating the average corn yield in the municipality at 50 sacks per hectare (48 bu/ac) compared to the 140 sacks per hectare (133 bu/ac) that was expected at the start of the growing season.
Mato Grosso do Sul - Mato Grosso do Sul is Brazil's third largest safrinha corn producing state after Mato Grosso and Parana. According to the Soybean & Corn Producers Association of Mato Grosso do Sul (Aprosoja/MS), the safrinha corn acreage in the state is estimated at 2.21 million hectares, which is down 5.8% from last year. The statewide corn yield is estimated at 86.3 sacks per hectare (82.3 bu/ac) which is down 14.2% from last year with a total production of 11.4 million tons, down 19.2% from last year.
Safrinha corn production in the state is a tale of two halves. Corn in northern Mato Grosso do Sul has a higher yield potential due to earlier planting and generally beneficial rainfall during the growing season. Corn in the southern part of the state has a much lower potential due to delayed planting and extended periods of hot and dry weather during the growing season. Some of the corn in the southern part of the state was planted a month later than desired due to the delayed soybean harvest.
The consulting firm DATAGRO is estimating the 2023/24 Brazil corn production at 114.3 million tons, which is down 16.2% compared to the 136.4 million tons produced in 2022/23. They are estimating the safrinha corn acreage at 17.2 million hectares and a production of 90.5 million tons.
The consulting firm Hedgepoint Global Markets is estimating the Brazil corn production at 117.1 million tons, which is down 2 million tons from their previous estimate. They feel Conab is too pessimistic concerning corn production in Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul.
The consulting firm Safras & Mercado is estimating the Brazil corn production at 123.3 million tons, which is down 2% from their previous estimate. Their estimate was lowered due to dryness in Mato Grosso do Sul, Parana, and Sao Paulo. Agroconsult is estimating the Brazil corn production at 123.4 million tons.
Conab reported last week that the first corn crop in Brazil is 72.4% harvested compared to 77.2% last year. The states where the harvest is most advanced are Sao Paulo (100%), Parana (99.8%), Santa Catarina (99%), Rio Grande do Sul (88%), Minas Gerais (83%), Bahia (60.2%), Goias (45%), Piaui (23%), and Maranhao (20%).